LIKELIHOOD OF A REGIONAL WAR?
The US has deployed formidable military assets, including two aircraft carrier groups and a nuclear submarine, to deter threats of a wider regional war. This has proven successful so far.
Hezbollah and Iran’s other proxies have escalated their attacks on Israel from their respective strongholds, but with limited effect for now.
Iran itself, bogged down with its own internal problems, will not want to be involved in a major war. But Iran will continue to use its proxies to foment regional instability.
The US remains the dominant player in the region, but it is not all-powerful.
Washington will continue to provide financial and material support to Israel, but it will also try to curb Israel’s military excesses besides focusing on getting all the hostages released and a longer humanitarian pause implemented.
Although self-sufficient in its energy needs, the US will not allow Saudi oil reserves or Qatari natural gas deposits to fall into the hands of unfriendly governments such as Iran, Russia and militant groups.
Consequently, Washington will not abandon its role as the security guarantor of its Gulf allies.
What is of concern to the Saudis is whether this guarantee extends to the preservation of Al Saud rule. Hence, a Saudi understanding with Israel serves as an added insurance policy against Iran, as well as a source of much-needed technical and managerial expertise.
China’s stock in the region has grown, given its economic clout and diplomatic foray that capitalised on the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
China’s interests in the region are primarily energy security and economic. Its leaders are astute enough to want good relations to remain with Saudi Arabia and its allies on one side, and Iran on the other.
They have no desire to become embroiled in the region’s intractable quarrels.