Without a post-war plan, Israel risks a bloody insurgency in Gaza

While insisting on Israel’s right to defend itself, some US officials are concerned that high civilian casualties could radicalize more Palestinians, driving new fighters into the arms of Hamas or future militant groups that might spring up to replace it, according to a source familiar with US policymaking.

More than a dozen Gazans interviewed by Reuters said the Israeli invasion was spawning a new generation of militants. Abu Mohammad, 37, a public servant from Jabalia refugee camp, said he would rather die than face Israeli occupation.

“I am not Hamas but in days of war, we are all one people, and if they finish off the fighters, we will take up the rifles and fight,” he told Reuters, declining to give his full name for fear of reprisals. “The Israelis may occupy Gaza, but they will never feel secure, not for a day.” 


Washington’s discussions of a post-war plan for Gaza are still in the very initial stages with the PA, other Palestinian stakeholders, and allies including Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to two US officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

“We’re certainly not there yet in terms of any effort to sell that vision to our regional partners who ultimately will have to live with it, and or implement it,” one senior US official said.

While Biden has insisted the war must end with a “vision” for a two-state solution – which would unify the Gaza Strip and the West Bank into a Palestinian state – he and his senior aides have neither offered specifics on how they expect to achieve this nor proposed a restart of talks.

Some experts see any effort to revive the negotiations as a long shot, not least because of the embittered mood of Israelis over Hamas’ Oct 7 atrocities and of Palestinians due to Israel’s retaliation in Gaza.

“Among the many tragedies of Hamas’s terrorist attack is that it fundamentally undermined and set back the Palestinian cause for a sovereign, independent state,” said Jonathan Panikoff, the US government’s former deputy national intelligence officer on the Middle East who is now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

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